Jason Alan Jankovsky Morning Forex Briefing August 31st
The USD continues to build on the reversal seen last Friday; most pairs are lower against the Greenback at the start of New York except USD/JPY. Equities are lower to start the week and the majors may be suffering from a bit of risk-off sentiment to start and a few pairs have traded through S/R seen last week.
Japanese elections has resulted in a shift in power as the opposition DPJ gained control of the Japanese House from the LDP for the first time in 15 years. Analysts expect no major change in Japanese fiscal policy to start putting the Yen in a “wait and see” position.
USD/JPY is lower to start the week with low prints at 92.53 making new August lows to end the month. High prints in the rate at 93.57 holding new resistance at 93.50/60 area. Traders expect the Yen to remain under upward pressure as new tax incentives lead to Yen-repatriation into the 4th quarter; Chinese investment into Japan is also expected to keep Yen underpinned.
GBP high prints at 1.6303 overnight but sellers came back under the 1.6250 area as expected; stops were seen under 1.6240 area with more under 1.6200 for a low print at 1.6181 before bids supported. Traders expect the 1.6180 area to fall this week as traders are turning neutral to bearish after the weak close seen Friday.
EURO is under pressure but not as much as Cable; low prints at 1.4255 in early New York are seeing usual bids in the area some desks report. Traders note stops are building in the 1.4240 area and below suggesting the 1.4250 area will fall early n the week.
USD/CHF is trading more sideways than other pairs; low prints at 1.0585 held support from last week with highs at 1.0635 so far this morning. Traders note stops building above the 1.0620/30 area and with the rate firm a run for stops may ignite a short-squeeze in the pair.
USD/CAD is on the march higher with solid follow-on buying from Friday’s rally; low prints at 1.0902 never tested support at 1.0880 area. High prints are back on the 1.1000 handle at 1.1049 with offers getting thinner as the pair advances. Traders expect a test of the 1.1080 area to find profit-taking offers from fast money longs but warn more stops above suggesting the rate may suffer a serious short-squeeze as the week rolls on.
In my view, the USD strength seen after the whipsaw last week underscores the need for the greenback to correct higher. Late USD sellers are covering back lifting the USD back to the top of recent selling action and if those late sellers don’t make another stand the bulls will have an advantage to push the Greenback higher. Look for this week to be a firm one for the USD, today should see the USD in quiet two-way action as it consolidates gains into more US data later in the week.
Jason Alan Jankovsky
FOREX Analyst and Trader
Toll Free in the US: 1-866-435-9959
Skype: TheLionOnline
Yahoo chat: TheLion_Chicago
Join me for my daily FOREX newsletters and LIVE FOREX briefings; click here for details
Check out my latest book: The Art of the Trade
Currently an Amazon top 100 bestseller under Business and Futures.
Also available my first book: Trading Rules that Work
Currently an Amazon.com top 100 bestseller under Finance/Futures
Trading in off-exchange foreign currency transactions (FOREX) involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading in FOREX is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. Opinions, market data, or trade discussion are subject to change at any time.
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Jason Alan Jankovsky Morning Forex Briefing August 28th
The USD is remaining under pressure this morning after a slight lift overnight but the Greenback is two-way into New York and making lows against some pairs as trading opens. Equities are showing marginal strength after a two-way session overnight; traders had some news to work with that helped GBP lift back to the 1.6340 area as UK GDP came in a bit better than forecasts.
For the most part, traders are still confused over the sharp rally in EURO with most speculating that it was related to a large trade in EURO/CHF during the day yesterday as that pair reached its recent floor most analysts say.
GBP high prints in early New York at 1.6370 where offers are said to be waiting although traders note that is from smaller accounts. Low prints at 1.6261 saw bids to support ahead of the UK news with stops noted above the 1.6280 and 1.6300 areas.
EURO high prints at 1.4378 in early Asia and the rate gradually deflated to a low print at 1.4324 before following Cable higher; the rate is challenging highs to start New York.
USD/JPY continues to consolidate overnight losses lifting back on the 94.00 handle for a high print at 94.08 before dropping back. Semi-official demand was seen under the 94.30 area yesterday and the rate holds with a 93.41 low print today.
USD/CHF high prints at 1.0621 overnight as the USD recovered but is now making lows in early New York at 1.0549 where bids are expected. Traders note that the rate is whipsawing around the 1.0580/90 area which appears to be a pivot area but bids are expected ahead of the month-end as well-paid shorts take money off the table.
USD/CAD is holding above the 1.0780 area where the recent rally started from; low prints at 1.0793 in early New York. High prints a disappointing 1.0897 as the rate continued to draw sellers ahead of the 1.0900 handle. Stops are likely cleared in the rate as the drop under the 1.0820/30 area of key support. In my view, the whippy conditions today are expected after the huge one-way move yesterday.
Although the USD remains oversold and sentiment is oversold, traders are just not ready to cover shorts in size. Most likely with the high correlation to equities the USD will be trading as equities trade suggesting a large move higher once stocks correct lower. I hate to say it but the Greenback is under a deeper threat than expected and that is the huge over-confidence the equities investor has in a US recovery. As we head into the last month of the quarter I would strongly urge equities investors to remain very cautious about this rally extending farther into the end of the year. Look for the USD to stabilize into the end of the month and expect a short-squeeze as traders square books for month end. Expect a lot of volatility into Monday.
Jason Alan Jankovsky, FOREX Analyst and Trader
Toll Free in the US: 1-866-435-9959
Skype: TheLionOnline
Yahoo chat: TheLion_Chicago
Join me for my daily FOREX newsletters and LIVE FOREX briefings; click here for details
Check out my latest book: The Art of the Trade
Currently an Amazon top 100 bestseller under Business and Futures.
Also available my first book: Trading Rules that Work
Currently an Amazon.com top 100 bestseller under Finance/Futures
Trading in off-exchange foreign currency transactions (FOREX) involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading in FOREX is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. Opinions, market data, or trade discussion are subject to change at any time.
Wealthy investors remain cautious while slowly re-entering equities market
From FinancialPlanning.com
According to the latest “High Net Worth Advisor Insight” report by the Spectrem Group, 16% of people with more than $500,000 investable assets were convinced to invest in equities when the Dow reached 9,000 in July. An additional 15% had already felt it was time to invest in equities before then. Approximately 26% will reinvest once the Dow tops 10,000. This would mean that more than 50% of wealthy investors are investing in equities again. Meanwhile, 11% of investors said they will never invest in the markets again.
Jason Alan Jankovsky Morning Forex Briefing August 27th
The USD is flat-to-mixed this morning ahead of the release of Q2 US GDP data, overnight action was lighter and two-way with modest economic data helping to drive trade.
UK home prices rose slightly better than expected lifting Cable to the best levels of the session but sellers were there as Cross-spreaders worked the sterling crosses. German consumer confidence also showed a slight rise lifting EURO but the rate is holding small gains unlike GBP.
China announced plans to increase their investment abroad through their SWF a whopping ten-fold in the coming year which most analysts see as largely going toward Japan lifting Yen to fresh August highs against the USD. Despite this good news equities remained lower in Asia and Europe with DJIA futures holding slight losses ahead of GDP data. GBP high prints at 1.6252 were capped by larger offers some desks report and the rate is making lows in early New York under support of 1.6180 at 1.6169 so far this morning. Traders note that larger stops are placed under yesterday’s lows around the 1.6120/30 area with bids likely ahead of 1.6100.
EURO low prints at 1.4218 with the rate lifting into highs after the news was out at 1.4277; the rate is still encountering tech resistance at 1.4280 area with some analysts suggesting that the larger stops are under the 1.4200 area today. Whipsaw is possible if the rate can drop back under the 1.4230 area as technicians target near-term support at 1.4220 area.
USD/JPY dropped to a new August low with a low print at 193.36 but met willing buyers on the dip; traders note a very large Asian sovereign (China?) buying USD under the 93.50 area lifting the rate back to the 93.80 area but overnight highs at 94.31 are unchallenged to start New York.
USD/CHF is flat holding near closing levels yesterday; high prints at 1.0703 with lows at 1.0662 making for an inside range technical start to the day. Traders note that support is firm around the 1.0660 area with resistance pegged at 1.0720/30 area; stops likely in size above the 1.0730 area.
USD/CAD is slightly lower holding support around the 1.0950 area with a low print at 1.0959 and highs at 1.1004 also making an inside range day. Traders note that stops are likely in size above the 1.1020 area with key resistance around 1.1080 area; support is pegged at 1.0920/30 on the downside.
In my view, the USD holding steady overnight and lower equities adding support it appears the market has already factored in today’s GDP data with any whipsaw likely to result in selling of equities as the markets appear “tired” at these highs. This may be a case of “buy the rumor/sell the fact” as investors have been anticipating a positive recovery for so long any good news may already be baked in the cake. Look for the USD to end the day higher after likely volatility early.
Jason Alan Jankovsky, FOREX Analyst and Trader
Toll Free in the US: 1-866-435-9959
Skype: TheLionOnline
Yahoo chat: TheLion_Chicago
Join me for my daily FOREX newsletters and LIVE FOREX briefings; click here for details
Check out my latest book: The Art of the Trade
Currently an Amazon top 100 bestseller under Business and Futures.
Also available my first book: Trading Rules that Work
Currently an Amazon.com top 100 bestseller under Finance/Futures
Trading in off-exchange foreign currency transactions (FOREX) involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading in FOREX is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. Opinions, market data, or trade discussion are subject to change at any time.
Jason Alan Jankovsky Morning Forex Briefing August 26
The USD is mixed this morning to start New York; edging to the best level of the day against some pairs as “risk-off” trade develops overnight. Equities were mixed in Asia and lower in Europe with DJIA futures currently off slightly in pre-opening trade suggesting that some liquidation from the highs might be in play ahead of US data due today and tomorrow; this is turn is lifting the Greenback slightly with more upside likely during the day today as traders cover-back winning shorts.
German IFO data was slightly better than expected giving the EURO a boost on the crosses but the rate was unable to vault yesterday’s highs and quickly returned to the New York closing range. High prints at 1.4353 drew aggressive sovereign selling traders say with lows in early Asia at 1.4279 drawing the same names on the bid suggesting that two-way trade is rule; tech levels are likely to be challenged soon with traders saying large stops building under 1.4250 with bids ahead. GBP is dropping through near-term support at the 1.6280 area to challenge bids ahead of well-known stops at the 1.6250 area; low prints in early New York at 1.6253 with highs at 1.6357. Traders note that the failure to hold the 1.6420 area yesterday and closing under the 1.6380 area turns the charts neutral-to-bearish and today’s dip to the 1.6250 area helps that argument; some desks reporting that sovereign interest was on the bid ahead of 1.6300 handle but that buying is now absorbed likely adding to the pressure on the 1.6250 area.
USD/JPY continues to languish around the 94.00 handle again overnight; high prints at 94.31 not even close to resistance at the 94.80 area. Low prints at 93.86 again on support but the rate can’t seem to get a solid hold over the 94.20 area; traders note solid bids and large names on the buy side but the offers are steady.
USD/CHF is holding about unchanged in very quiet trade after testing support in Asia overnight; low prints at 1.0579 again holding above the new 2009 low with highs at 1.0630 in early New York. Traders remind that the 1.0660 area holds large interest on the buy side as late shorts continue to press the advantage above the 1.0630/40 area near-term. Stops in size likely above 1.0660/80 area making for a potential short-squeeze.
USD/CAD is already experiencing a solid short-squeeze this morning finding stops above the 1.0880 area and more at 1.0900 for a high print at 1.0936 before meeting sellers; no doubt some profit taking from fast-money longs as the rate has bounced two-full handles in 24 hours. Low prints at 1.0828 likely to hold on any dip but 1.0980 likely first.
In my view, the USD is beginning the corrective short-covering rally we have been waiting for; most of the pairs are back at key S/R levels or holding them now suggesting the bears have run out of ammunition. Look for today’s US data to be benign but tomorrow’s GDP number to create some fireworks.
Jason Alan Jankovsky, FOREX Analyst and Trader
Toll Free in the US: 1-866-435-9959
Skype: TheLionOnline
Yahoo chat: TheLion_Chicago
Join me for my daily FOREX newsletters and LIVE FOREX briefings; click here for details
Check out my latest book: The Art of the Trade
Currently an Amazon top 100 bestseller under Business and Futures.
Also available my first book: Trading Rules that Work
Currently an Amazon.com top 100 bestseller under Finance/Futures
Trading in off-exchange foreign currency transactions (FOREX) involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading in FOREX is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. Opinions, market data, or trade discussion are subject to change at any time
Social Media, inexperienced traders, and the experienced traders who love them
In a great post by Sam Seiden of Online Trading Academy, he draws the conclusion that inexperienced traders are swept into a plethora of buying and selling opportunities that are ill timed and at the least dangerous. Experienced traders learn something about the markets that allow for the identification of true opportunities based on where institutional traders buy and sell.
The Profit in Peace System for traders from Currency Investors Group has the reputation for making the novice trader feel a bit counter trend. The reason? We teach traders to buy when the dumb money is selling and buy when the dumb money is buying.
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Currency Investors Group’s CEO, Sherman Mohr, stated in a meeting on Friday August 21st, “Our company seeks to expose retail cash trading of foreign currency to as many qualified investors as possible. Our career path program allows the local trader of forex, no matter where he or she may be, to take part in our mission to provide more people with skills to make life changing income trading foreign currency than any company in history.” The career path program from Currency Investors Group is an outgrowth of the company’s mission. In conducting its business plan research and focus group work, the team at Currency Investors Group recognized that there were no companies that built local relationships with forex traders. “The traditional method of delivering the power of the forex market has been routinely given over to affiliate marketers selling automated trading systems, known as EA’s. Other seminar driven recruitment efforts have left people with no local assistance or accountability when it comes to help after a demo account is opened. Huge firms such as Forex.com and IBFX.com are doing a great job of exposing the market’s potential but the direct to consumer model still doesn’t fit the way traditional investors want to learn.”, said Sherman Mohr. Currency Investors Group’s career path program allows the forex trader in his or her home town to utilize company resources, Agreements, trainings, and other soon to be released tools to introduce friends, colleagues, neighbors, and other prospects to trading foreign currency. Currency Investors Group’s product mix allows an individual to earn commission on the sale of training and technology packages, become certified to train in the field, and then subsequently live in a pre-determined portion of all introducing broker revenue earned by the company on traders the Account Executive has introduced to the company. Sherman Mohr, CIG’s CEO goes on to explain, “Currency Investors Group seeks to model the Edward Jones style of business. Local relationships leading to local traders. There are no companies building a true team of local representatives to speak for the power of the industry on a local level. Our Account Executives have the opportunity to build true businesses in the style of large general agencies in the life insurance markets. Our vision is simple, as a trader introduced to this industry by a Currency Investors Group Account Executive, you have a friend in the business. He or she trades, knows how to mentor you, has lunch with you, plays golf with you, and benefits when you win as a trader. It is always in Currency Investors Group’s best interest when our traders learn how to trade and meet profit targets by trading to a plan we show them how to build.” Currency Investors Group utilizes a simple method for teaching and trading known as the Profit in Peace System(Pips) for currency trading. Davis Bell, Chief Training Officer for Currency Investors Group has utilized the system for trading his own accounts for three years. To get started in the Currency Investors Group Account Executive Program, there are no applications to fill out, no tests to pass, or hurdles. We want you involved. To initiate your relationship with our firm and get started: Click Here! |
Jason Alan Jankovsky Morning Forex Report August 24th
The USD is starting the week slightly better as follow-on two-way action in technical trade picks up where we left off on Friday’s close. Overnight economic news was light;
Eurozone Industrial New Orders topped forecasts underpinning EURO after light stops were triggered under the 1.4300 handle. High prints in EURO at 1.4360 drew tech sellers with low prints at 1.4280 found tech buyers. Traders note that the daily charts suggest a bit of overbought bias suggesting that sellers will likely try to make a stand early in the week. GBP also had a two-way start to the week lifting to a high print at 1.6547 before dropping under the 1.6500 handle to find light stops; low prints at 1.6438 were seen after stops under 1.6450 were triggered. Cable spreaders were said to be active overnight and the rate got a boost from the lift in EURO eventually regaining the 1.6500 handle ahead of the New York open. Traders note that the rate is holding the 50 day MA on dips but the offers appear fairly willing on rallies suggesting the rate is coiling for a larger breakout move. Should EURO make a large move to extend the range it may take Cable with it.
USD/JPY is firmer as equities provide some cushion but traders say the correlation to the stock markets may be breaking down; high prints at 95.08 drew offers from the expected sources traders say but note that CTA stops were seen mixed in with the offers above the 95.00 handle. Low prints at 94.30 were again on tech support and the chart-watchers are looking for the 200 day MA to again play a role in future price action with a close above likely to squeeze the shorts.
USD/CHF is firming up back on the 1.0600 handle after dropping to a low print at 1.0563; high prints at 1.0633 make for an inside range so far but traders expect the rate to remain firm above the 2009 lows around the 1.0550 area. Fears of SNB action are still lingering as well suggesting that the shorts may not press their advantage under the 1.0600 handle.
USD/CAD is also inside range with high prints at 1.0828 and lows at 1.0778 making for a tighter range. With a flat close today the rate will be at a point of indecision suggesting a potential recovery is in the works if the rate can’t close under the 1.0800 handle. In my view, the USD is finding a bottom again near the end of the current consolidation range seen the past few weeks. Volumes appear to be larger in the middle of the ranges which usually indicates liquidation from the late players at the extremes of the ranges suggesting that the bulls and bears are fairly evenly matched despite the overwhelming bearish sentiment seen.
In my view, this means the bears are covering in larger size on dips because they are losing confidence in their position. If that is the case, the bulls will eventually gain an advantage lifting the USD into a firm correction. Look for lower equities to help with the change in sentiment from bearish to corrective. Aggressive traders can look to be on the buy side of the USD again this week.
Jason Alan Jankovsky, FOREX Analyst and Trader
Toll Free in the US: 1-866-435-9959
Skype: TheLionOnline
Yahoo chat: TheLion_Chicago
Join me for my daily FOREX newsletters and LIVE FOREX briefings; click here for details
Check out my latest book: The Art of the Trade
Currently an Amazon top 100 bestseller under Business and Futures.
Also available my first book: Trading Rules that Work
Currently an Amazon.com top 100 bestseller under Finance/Futures
Trading in off-exchange foreign currency transactions (FOREX) involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading in FOREX is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. Opinions, market data, or trade discussion are subject to change at any time.
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