Foreign Exchange Investor Education Volume 4
Much has been said of leverage in the forex market. Most of the time, it is the least understood aspect of trading. This Bloomberg produced video, featuring content from DBFX, the NFA, and Gain sheds light on this incredibly powerful tool used in forex trading.
Jason Alan Jankovsky Morning Forex Briefing Sept 30th
The USD is weaker overall after a few strong days of upside give way to corrective selling after overnight news was seen as supportive for the majors.
The BOE cautioned that the end of QE could be at any time and they are watching data closely before deciding to extend the QE program; traders bought Cable on the crosses and the rate lifted to the best levels of the week getting a further boost from better UK Retail Sales. Additional upside for the majors is coming from end-of-month and book balancing which is pressuring the USD into European trade. Although the Greenback is still holding above recent lows traders are still negative unless there is a sharp drop in Equities as the main focus remains how well the world’s stock markets will perform into the end of year.
GBP low prints at 1.5949 in early Asia went bid early as traders continued to buy the GBP spreads after the sharp drop seen earlier; high prints in early New York at 1.6121 as follow-on buying above 1.6080 found light stops. Traders note that overhead resistance is quite hefty on the approach to 1.6150/80 area.
EURO opened about unchanged n Asia and low prints at 1.4575 were seen early before the rate began another slow grind higher into resistance at the 1.4620 area; the rate dropping on technical sales but recovered to rally to highs in late Europe at 1.4675 before stabilizing. Traders note that technical resistance is right around the 1.4680 area suggesting the rate has corrected nicely from the lows yesterday and is ready to resume the downside correction.
USD/JPY sold off as tech resistance at 90.50 held in early Asia, traders note that Japanese names were on the offer as general USD weakness prompted a try for stops under the 89.80 area; more stops found under the 89.50 area for a low print at 89.34 in European trade. High prints at 90.42 were on light volume some desks report.
USD/CHF high prints at 1.0370 again found offers and the rate was pressured lower as EURO rallied; low prints at 1.0283 are once again on tech support and the rate needs to close back near the 1.0350/60 area today for the upside rally to gain momentum with a close back on the 1.0400 handle very important for the week.
USD/CAD dropped back through the 50 day MA after trying hard to hold above after a neutral close yesterday; high prints at 1.0854 failed to attract buying and the rate sold off finding close-in stops at 1.0780 and 1.0750 for a low print at 1.0714 in early New York. Traders note that the rate is now right on tech support around the 1.0700/20 area and if a recovery is still in the works a rally from here is needed today.
In my view, the USD continues to hold key S/R despite the sell-off overnight; if book-balancing needs are only temporary then this break is a buying opportunity which will result in a higher USD by end-of-week. US data today through Friday is likely to be closely watched by equities traders and if seen as negative for stocks a USD rally could continue from early this morning.
Jason Alan Jankovsky, FOREX Analyst and Trader
Toll Free in the US: 1-866-435-9959
Skype: TheLionOnline
Yahoo chat: TheLion_Chicago
Join me for my daily FOREX newsletters and LIVE FOREX briefings; click here for details
Check out my latest book: The Art of the Trade
Currently an Amazon top 100 bestseller under Business and Futures.
Also available my first book: Trading Rules that Work
Currently an Amazon.com top 100 bestseller under Finance/Futures
Trading in off-exchange foreign currency transactions (FOREX) involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading in FOREX is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. Opinions, market data, or trade discussion are subject to change at any time.
MIG Investments Bullish on Dollar in Short Term
This CNBC interview shares insight to the dollars future by analysts at Swiss firm MIG Investments.
Jason Alan Jankovsky Morning Forex Briefing Sept 29th
The USD is mixed this morning, lower against Cable and firmer against the rest of the majors; traders attribute GBP strength this morning to a mix of EURO/GBP liquidation and UK data.
Overnight UK GDP data showed continuing weakness coming in a bit below expectations but comments from the BOE suggesting that monetary policy was appropriate added a bit of fear into the market and shorts covered.
Overnight equities were mixed, mostly higher in Asia as yesterday’s rally on Wall Street added a bit of risk-on trade but were lower in Europe with DJIA futures currently lower suggesting a weaker opening in New York. Traders note that the USDX is gradually inching higher and some feel that despite the overwhelming bearish sentiment the USD is due for a correction regardless of what happens in Equities or elsewhere.
GBP low prints at 1.5823 found light stops under 1.5850 from early longs but failed to extend into yesterday’s lows; stops above the market lifted the rate back through unchanged on the day for a high print at 1.5989 in early New York with offers expected to cap around 1.5920/30 areas.
EURO initially held firm around the 1.4610/20 area in early Asia as traders bought a close over last week’s lows but the rally was short-lived as the rate peaked at a dismal 1.4647 before turning a full handle lower; low prints in early New York at 1.4535 after finding stops under 1.4550/60 area. The rate is firm around 1.4550 suggesting that a bounce may be coming but traders expect any strength to be sold as the rate is under liquidation pressure.
USD/JPY is firmer after yesterday’s strong buying off the new seven-month lows lifting to a high print at 90.25 before dropping back under the 90.00 handle; low prints at the start of Asia were 89.58 and the rate appears firm around 89.80 area suggesting a bottom may be forming again. Overnight comments from Japan’s Fujii continue to confuse traders and most are unclear what the FinMin means by “appropriate’ or “intervention” making it harder to gauge his comments.
USD/CHF continues to grind into new highs lifting to a high print at 1.0406 before dropping back under the 1.0400 handle; low prints at 1.0312 continue to show a base forming above the recent lows. Traders note that a firm close on the 1.0400 handle this week sets the stage for a test of the 1.0480 area near-term; above there and the rate is firmly in correction mode.
USD/CAD is better also but well off the recent highs; high prints at 1.0901 show the buyers are willing but the rate is under there to start New York. Low prints at 1.0781 found stops under the 50 day MA and 1.0820 area for the tech traders but the recovery again shows the bulls are willing.
In my view, the USD is continuing to fill in a bottom and more upside is on the way. Expect volatility during the week but two-way action will provide a lot of solid places to add to open longs. Look for US data today and Wednesday to be unfriendly to equities ad increase the potential for USD shorts to cover.
Jason Alan Jankovsky, FOREX Analyst and Trader
Toll Free in the US: 1-866-435-9959
Skype: TheLionOnline
Yahoo chat: TheLion_Chicago
Join me for my daily FOREX newsletters and LIVE FOREX briefings; click here for details
Check out my latest book: The Art of the Trade
Currently an Amazon top 100 bestseller under Business and Futures.
Also available my first book: Trading Rules that Work
Currently an Amazon.com top 100 bestseller under Finance/Futures
Trading in off-exchange foreign currency transactions (FOREX) involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading in FOREX is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. Opinions, market data, or trade discussion are subject to change at any time.
Week of September 28th Financial Calendar
REPORT CALENDAR
Monday, September 28, 2009
* Four-Week Bill Announcement
* Three-Month Bill Auction
* Six-Month Bill Auction
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
* ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
* Redbook for the week ending Sept. 26
* S&P Case-Shiller HPI for the month of July
* Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fischer gives status report on economy to the Texas Christian University Business Network of Dallas
* Consumer Confidence for September
* State Street Investor Confidence Index for September
* Four-Week Bill Auction
* Farm Prices for September
* Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser speaks on the Fed’s role in the economy at the Lehigh Valley Economic Outlook in Easton, Penn.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
* MBA Purchase Applications for the week ending Sept. 25
* ADP Employment Report for September
* GDP for Second Quarter 2009
* Corporate Profits for Second Quarter 2009
* Chicago PMI for September
* EIA Petroleum Status Report for the week ending Sept. 25
Thursday, October 1, 2009
* Monster Employment Index for September
* Motor Vehicle Sales for September
* Challenger Job-Cut Report for September
* Personal Income and Outlays for August
* Jobless Claims for the week ending Sept. 26
* 30-Year Bond Announcement
* ISM Mfg Index for September
* Construction Spending for August
* Pending Home Sales Index for August
* EIA Natural Gas Report for the week ending Sept. 25
* Three-Month Bill Announcement
* Six-Month Bill Announcement
* Three-Year Note Announcement
* 10-Year Note Announcement
* 10-Year TIPS Announcement
* Fed Balance Sheet for the week ending Sept. 30
* Money Supply for the week ending Sept. 21
Friday, October 2, 2009
* Employment Situation for September
* Factory Orders for August
Foreign Exchange Investor Series Volume 3
This video in the Currency Investors Group Educated Investor Series by Bloomberg Video showcases details surrounding the cost of trading currencies. Great information without an agenda is tough to find but Bloomberg has done a masterful job with support from DBFX, Gain Capital, and other content providers.
Don’t forget if you have questions, just let us know and don’t forget to join our trading community, http://tradersconnectionnetwork.ning.com. It’s free and built for you.
Jason Alan Jankovsky Morning Forex Briefing Sept 28th
The USD is mostly firmer to start New York but off the best levels of the day so far after overnight news and technical factors contributed to follow-on selling of the majors.
Comments from Japan’s Fujii put the USD/JPY on the defense and it is the only pair lower; but the rate is well off the overnight lows and pushing for a recovery as USD strength appears across the board.
German regional CPI numbers are coming in a bit lower than expected adding some pressure to EURO but the big news in German y is the election pushing the government to the more liberal side with Merkel’s win. Equities are starting the week mixed and commodities are mostly lower adding to the “risk-off” trade suggesting the USD strength is broadly-based.
GBP fell through stops under Friday’s lows to continue clearing out weak longs eventually dropping to a low print at 1.5768 before attempting a bounce; high prints in early Asia at 1.5980 went offer early as cross-spreaders sold everything versus Yen.
Traders note the rate has traded to a four-month low below June’s low suggesting that the top is firmly in to finish the quarter; likely rallies will be sold.
EURO suffered a similar fate holding to the Friday closing range only briefly; high prints in Asia at 1.4722 went offer early as well dropping the rate to find large stops under the weekly low around 1.4610 area. The rate continued under pressure as CTA stops were triggered under the 1.4580 area dropping to a low print at 1.4563 before attempting a mild relief rally. The rate is lower but off the lows to open New York around the 1.4650 area but traders say the rate feels heavy to start the week and the technical’s suggest a near-term top is in.
USD/JPY dropped on the Fujii comments saying that he does not favor an artificially supported Yen; traders took that to mean either the government will do nothing to stop the Yen’s rise; they favor a strong Yen, or both. High prints at 89.66 at the open drew aggressive selling pressing the rate to a new seven-month low at 88.22 finding large stops under the Friday lows.
Traders say that the rate is “all sellers” but warn of official interest under the 88.80 area where sovereigns were seen previously in the year.
USD/CHF continues to back-and-fill while trying to hold the 1.0300 handle; low prints of 1.0250 at the start of Asia found short-covering after failing to find stops on the dip under 1.0280 area in size; the rally lifted the rate more than a full handle for a high print at 1.0377 before settling back to the middle range. Traders note the rate is finding more stops on each rally but is being met with offers at each S/R level on the way up suggesting more two-way action in the pair.
USD/CAD continues to hold above the 50 day MA with a high print at 1.0995 as offers at the 1.1000 handle continue to cap; low prints at 1.0906 make the first time since the first of the month that the rate has been completely on the 1.0900 handle or higher suggesting the rate will end with a reversal month.
In my view, the USD is continuing to sketch in a top and more gains are likely. The fact that CTA stops were triggered this late in the month from open shorts suggests that more money managers will square books rather than let a winning month turn loser. Look for the Greenback to remain firm on dips all week and end higher.
Jason Alan Jankovsky, FOREX Analyst and Trader
Toll Free in the US: 1-866-435-9959
Skype: TheLionOnline
Yahoo chat: TheLion_Chicago
Join me for my daily FOREX newsletters and LIVE FOREX briefings; click here for details
Check out my latest book: The Art of the Trade
Currently an Amazon top 100 bestseller under Business and Futures.
Also available my first book: Trading Rules that Work
Currently an Amazon.com top 100 bestseller under Finance/Futures
Trading in off-exchange foreign currency transactions (FOREX) involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading in FOREX is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. Opinions, market data, or trade discussion are subject to change at any time.
Foreign Exchange Investor Education Video Series Volume 2
Welcome to Currency Investors Group’s Foreign Exchange Investor Education Series volume 2. This section deals with foreign exchange trading terms. The series is filmed and hosted by Bloomberg and features sponsorship by DBFX, Bloomberg, and content by Gain Capital and other well known forex trading authorities.
If you find this content interesting, continue to visit our site. We’ll be hosting the video series and providing introductory content to each video. Once the videos are hosted, we assemble the group in a separate email sequence as well.
Enjoy the learning. They are of the best quality.
Today’s lesson: Forex trading terms.
Foreign Exchange Investor Education Video Series
Currency Investors Group is spending the next two weeks delivering a daily video with commentary on the foreign exchange market. These informative videos were produced by Bloomberg and provide tremendous educational material to the investor that has never opened a foreign exchange trading account.
Professional production, expert advice, truly neutral material, and the absence of hype make this series a natural fit for sharing by Currency Investors Group.
Enjoy the power of video one. “The Retail Forex Market”
Jason Alan Jankovsky Morning Forex Report Sept 25th
The USD is mixed to open New York after an extended rally in early Asia lifted the USD back to near the best levels of the week against most pairs before a round of profit taking pushed the majors higher into Europe.
Overnight news was positive for global growth; France GDP was a bit better than expected and German GFK consumer sentiment is expected to continue rising. Most traders saw stops in size in some pairs help with price action in both directions as USD bulls had some profit to protect as well as the “sell the rally” crowd; most desks suggest that EURO and GBP have reached a near-term support level and that was reason for early shorts to cover but the main driver of USD pressure was Yen crosses.
The USD/JPY took a slap lower driving into stops under the 90.50 area after two-ay consolidation within established ranges gave way to more selling; stops drove the rate to major support at 90.10/20 area where the rate stabilized but a quick stop-driven drive under the 90.00 area resulted in a low print at 89.94 before rallying back to the 90.20 area quickly. High prints overnight at 91.36 were a disappointment to the bulls as a test of 90.80 area was hoped for this morning.
GBP suffered another sharp break into major support before recovering driven mostly by action on the crosses; low prints at 1.5915 after hitting stops layered under the 1.6020, 1.6000, 1.5980 and 1.5950 areas. High prints were at the Asian open at 1.60.69 and may be challenged in New York as the rate has recovered on short-covering and dip-buying all the way back to the 1.6020 area making the day a bit whippy for both sides.
EURO extended down to a low print at 1.4613 matching the weekly low on Monday with traders suggesting that big stops are clustered under the 1.4600 handle for the day today; high prints into Europe at 1.4722 as dip-buyers and shorts covered but desks report solid offers into the rally starting above 1.4680 or so.
USD/CHF again stalled at the very important 1.0320/30 area with a high print at 1.0323 before slipping a bit into New York; low prints at 1.0266 are still above the deeper support area at 1.0220/30 area suggesting the bulls are trying to take a stand. Overnight comments from SNB Roth suggests also that the SNB will continue with intervention options but mostly in EURO helped to underpin but the offers are still willing.
USD/CAD extended to a high print at 1.0946 and met sellers ahead of 1.0980 next resistance area; low prints at 1.0858 challenged support at the 1.0880 area but the bids supported and the rate is back on the 1.0900 handle into New York.
In my view, the USD is consolidating before another move higher. Today’s US data and results from the G20 meeting will likely be seen as supportive; equities are mixed overnight and the DJIA is slightly higher in pre-trade. Look for the Greenback to end better by the end of day.
Jason Alan Jankovsky, FOREX Analyst and Trader
Toll Free in the US: 1-866-435-9959
Skype: TheLionOnline
Yahoo chat: TheLion_Chicago
Join me for my daily FOREX newsletters and LIVE FOREX briefings; click here for details
Check out my latest book: The Art of the Trade
Currently an Amazon top 100 bestseller under Business and Futures.
Also available my first book: Trading Rules that Work
Currently an Amazon.com top 100 bestseller under Finance/Futures
Trading in off-exchange foreign currency transactions (FOREX) involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading in FOREX is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more than your initial investment. Opinions, market data, or trade discussion are subject to change at any time.
